Weekly COT Report: USD Bullish Interest Drops To a 14-Month low

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.

As of Tuesday 20th of August:

  • Traders were net-long USD $10.9 bn, down from $12.3 the prior week (-$1.41 bn). Against G10 currencies, traders were net-long by $14.5 bn, down -$0.95 form the prior week.
  • Net-long exposure on the yen increased for a 3rd consecutive week
  • Euro saw the largest weekly change, as bears reduced net-short exposure by -8.672k contracts
  • Among the FX majors, traders are only net-long on CAD and JPY

USD: Traders are the least bullish on the USD since June 2018, which is the week if flipped from net-short to net-long. We’ve seen demand for the USD move notably lower since its May peak, yet DXY had remained stubbornly high. That said, this was ahead of Friday’s tweet storm by Trump which saw DXY endure its most bearish session since January 2018. However, the 1-year Z-score is now -2.1 standard deviations to suggest it could be stretched relative to its 1-year average. Although that said, Z-scores don’t make very good timing signals, but they do flag a potential for over-extension.  Given we’ve seen a momentum shift from its highs, we remain bearish on USD over the near-term.

JPY: The Japanese yen remain in demand and net-long exposure is now at its highest level since November 2016. That said, both longs and shorts reduced exposure which saw open interest drop by -9,972 contracts, so the rise of net-positioning was mostly fuelled by short-covering last week. Gross short positioning is now at its lowest level since January 2012 and, given the  rising tensions over the trade war, we remain bullish on the yen overall.

As of Tuesday 20th of August:

  • Large speculators were their most bullish on gold in nearly 3-years
  • WTI traders increased their bullish exposure to a 5-week high
  • Platinum traders were their least bullish in 5-week
  • Copper traders remained net-short for a 17-consective week

Gold: The bullish rally continues with the precious yellow metal having tested $1556 early Asia. Pretty much every metric we look at suggests the move is stretched, but we still need price action to confirm anything like a correction. The fact that we’ve clearly seen a regime shift makes these ‘overbought’ levels less reliable, yet it does bear keeping in mind that net-long and gross-long exposure is at levels last seen in 2016, to suggest it’s at or near a sentiment extreme. Therefor we’d suggest caution around current levels if entering long on the daily chart, yet without any topping price action, urge against fading into this bullish rally to try and catch a top.

Copper: Traders have been net-short on copper for 17 weeks. Moreover, they were the most bearish on record last week. Yet, despite this you could argue that prices remain elevated. So this could mean that prices are yet to roll over and confirm large speculators as correct, or there’ll be a lot of shorts to cover if shorts get shaken out, which could spark quite a rally in the metal. For now, we remain bearish on copper as it recently confirmed a head and shoulders top pattern. Now we just need prices to accelerate to the downside.


本文所含内容及观点仅为一般信息,并无任何意图被视为买卖任何货币或差价合约的建议或请求。文中所 含内容及观点匀可能在不被通知的情况下更改。本文并未考虑任何特定用户的特定投资目标、财务状况和 需求。任何引用历史价格波动或价位水平的信息均基于我们的分析,并不表示或证明此类波动或价位水平 有可能在未来重新发生。本文所载信息之来源虽被认为可靠,但作者不保证它的准确性和完整性,同时作者也不对任何可能因参考本文内容及观点而产生的任何直接或间接的损失承担责任。

期货、期货期权、外汇和其他产品交易存在高风险,不适合所有投资者。亏损可能超出您的账户注资。减低安全资金要求意味着增加风险。黄金、白银现货交易不受《美国商品交易法案》的监管。差价合约(CFDs) 不对美国居民提供。在决定交易外汇之前,您需仔细考虑您的财务目标、经验水平和风险承受能力。文中所含任何意见、 新闻、研究、分析、报价或其他信息等都仅作与本文所含主题相关的一般类信息,同时嘉盛全球市场有限公司不提供任何投资、法律或税务的建议。您需要合适的顾问征询所有关于投资、法律或税务方面的事宜。有关FOREX.com或嘉盛集团请参考嘉盛集团股份有限公司 (GAIN Capital Holdings Inc.) 以及旗下子公司相关信息。